Entrepreneurial Activity in Uzbekistan Demonstrates Steady Growth

On the eve of Entrepreneur’s Day, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) released the results of its latest nationwide survey on the business climate in Uzbekistan. The findings highlight steady improvements: more than one-third of entrepreneurs report better business activity, while most anticipate rising demand and job creation in the months ahead. Overall, the business environment continues to consolidate the positive trajectory of recent years.

Business Climate Analysis

According to the July survey, Uzbekistan’s composite Business Climate Index reached 52 points, a 5-point increase compared to the same period last year. The growth was primarily driven by stronger current activity, as the current situation index jumped by 14 points to 44.

This index reflects entrepreneurs’ assessments of sales, employment, demand, resource availability, and overall operational stability.

Meanwhile, the expectations index adjusted downward, from 66 to 59 points, though it remains at a relatively high level. This demonstrates sustained confidence among entrepreneurs about future prospects.

Survey data confirm these trends:

• 37% of respondents reported improved business conditions over the past three months;

• 42% observed higher demand for goods and services;

• 24% expanded their workforce, pointing to business growth and rising demand for labor.

Looking ahead, optimism persists. Two-thirds of entrepreneurs (66%) expect demand to increase, more than half (53%) anticipate employment growth, and one in four (25%) foresee price increases, indicating that inflationary expectations are influencing business sentiment.

Sectoral Insights

• Agriculture. The business climate index rose to 50 points, 4 points higher than last year. The current situation index climbed from 35 to 39, while expectations improved from 59 to 61. Notably, 41% of agricultural entrepreneurs reported stronger conditions, and 79% expect further improvements.

• Industry. The index strengthened to 50 points, up 6 points year-on-year. Over half of entrepreneurs (51%) rated the current situation as satisfactory, and 21% noted workforce expansion. Expectations remain strong, with 74% forecasting further improvements. The current situation index surged from 20 to 44, reflecting a marked recovery in industrial activity.

• Services. The index reached 54 points, 3 points higher than last year. The current situation index rose from 34 to 48. Almost half of respondents (47%) rated their situation as good, while 39% reported improvements. Although expectations remain positive (64% expect stronger demand), the figure is slightly below last year’s 69%.

• Construction. The index stood at 50 points, 5 points above last year’s level. The current situation index improved from 28 to 38, while expectations rose from 62 to 63. 42% of entrepreneurs reported better conditions in the past three months (vs. 25% last year), and 24% expect further progress, signaling positive market sentiment.

Outlook

Uzbekistan continues to make consistent progress in fostering a favorable business environment. Rising current activity levels and strong entrepreneurial optimism confirm the resilience of domestic demand and the adaptability of the private sector in a changing economic landscape.

CERR compiles the Uzbekistan Business Climate Index based on surveys of more than 1,000 enterprises across various industries. The methodology is aligned with that of the IFO Institute (Germany), combining assessments of both current and expected business conditions, including production dynamics, demand, and pricing.