Impact Assessment of the Coronavirus Outbreak on the Transport Industry of Uzbekistan and Mitigation Measures

Dildora Ibragimova

Infrastructure Development Project Manager,

Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research

Republic of Uzbekistan

E-mail: ibrdilya@mail.ru

Abstract: The article assesses the impact of the anti-crisis measures taken based on the analysis of the volume of cargo transported, and describes the problems of the industry by type of transport in the current circumstances caused by the global coronavirus pandemic. Concrete measures are formulated to mitigate the negative impact on economic development.

Keywords: COVID-19, air transport, road transport, rail transport, transit corridors, multimodal corridors.

Currently, the coronavirus pandemic (hereinafter COVID-19) is considered the most relevant issue of the day all over the world) [1].

COVID-19 seriously affected all spheres of human activity, literally "paralyzing" the world's largest economies. The activities of transport and logistics companies have also been significantly affected by quarantine measures in connection with the ban on the movement of passengers on all modes of transport [2, 3] and the restriction of cargo transportation by road by some countries, which, in turn, may lead to a decrease in the pace of world trade. However, it is certainly self-isolation and restrictions on public transport that reduce the risks of widespread of the virus.

Losses in the volume of passenger and cargo transportation within the Republic and beyond its borders can undoubtedly significantly slow down the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan. An Anti-Crisis Fund [4] has been set up for the duration of antiviral measures to support entrepreneurship, infrastructure projects, and leading sectors of the Republic's economy, including tourism and transport. As a priority measure to prevent the import and spread of a new type of COVID-19 virus, a commission has been established in Uzbekistan to study the situation in the country and abroad in connection with the spread of this type of coronavirus [5].

In accordance with the preliminary estimates of experts about the loss of up to 31 million US dollars [6] in the tourism industry of Uzbekistan, as well as the introduction of restrictions on passenger transportation in domestic and interstate communications, the aviation sector of the country has been granted a number of preferences: deferred payment of debt on loans without accrual of penalties, revision of loan repayment schedules of JSC "Uzbekistan Airways", exemption from payment of land and property taxes, and payment of social tax at a reduced rate of 1 percent [7].

Passenger transportation by rail in the 1st quarter of 2020 decreased to 81%, and by air-to 83.4 %. Carriage of passengers in road transport was 103.3% compared with the 1st quarter of 2019. According to the data, the introduction of quarantine measures did not have a big impact on the drop in traffic (Fig.1). But since April, there has been a sharp decline in passenger traffic on road transport.

Source: compiled according to the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics

Fig. 1. The growth rate of the volume of passengers sent by transport modes

in 2020, % to Q1 2019

However, the spread of COVID-19 did not affect the Republic's cargo transportation activities and in order to ensure timely delivery of goods and prevent slowing down of foreign trade transportation processes, the Government of the country is taking increased measures to reorient part of the volume of international road transport to rail, as well as multimodal transport, bypassing countries closed to transportation due to quarantine measures.

Analysis of the dynamics of cargo shipments for the 1st quarter of 2020 shows a 35.5% decrease in traffic volumes due to restrictions imposed during the period of measures taken to combat the pandemic in air transport. In road transport, the volume of cargo sent by the 1st quarter of 2019 increased to 105.8% due to the dispatch of goods in domestic traffic. 17.1 million tons of cargo were sent from the Republic's railway stations, which amounted to 100.9% by Q1 2019. (Fig. 2).